I'm fairly confident it is the toilet's wax seal. This is the portion of the toilet that takes your flushed water and puts it down the drain. The fact that the toilet caulking is cracking indicates that it was perhaps bumped pretty hard, and that broke the wax seal. Check your memory and see if this water from the floor coincides with toilet flushing. A slow leak would slowly find the low spots and drip somewhere else. The idea that the water is squishing out of the vinyl flooring indicates that the relatively large amount of flushed water is missing the drain with each flush. This same thing can happen on a shower or tub drain, but they are so heavy that being bumped (the typical cause) is unlikely.
It's also very easy and cheap to check and redo a toilet seal, making a great place to start looking for a leak. Go to the hard ware store and get a new wax seal. They'll be less than $10. The toilet is held to the floor with only two bolts on either side, and are usually covered with a cap. Simply remove the bolts, turn off and remove the tank water, then take the toilet off the floor and investigate. You are looking for whether the wax seal looks like it was holding up along the toilet-drain connection, and you are also looking for signs of water especially saturated in the area. There are many YouTube videos out there to show you specifics.
Alternatively, you can simply not use the toilet for about a week, and see if the water problem persists. I'm confident enough in your description that it is the toilet's wax seal that I think you can try this waiting strategy to verify, instead of removing the toilet at the start. But since a toilet seal is such an easy DIY project, I say just pull it off and redo it.
As for long term seriousness, if this is a new development, it will probably be fine once you find the leak and stop it. If there is a ceiling below this bathroom floor, it won't be long before you start seeing the water come out of it. You definitely need to address this immediately.