I just noticed what appears to be a water stain with some peeling paint on a first floor hallway ceiling underneath a second floor bathroom. The stain appears to be below the toilet and does not feel damp or wet. I checked the faucets, shower and toilet in the upstairs bathroom, none seem to be leaking. What next steps should I consider to fix this and stop damage from getting worse? Picture below.
Background: I'm a first-time homeowner who just moved into a 1960s-built house earlier this month. New to doing repairs myself, didn't grow up with family members who taught me and am learning from square one.