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Feb 7 at 5:53 comment added JBurt Good points! I did turn off the breaker right after I took that picture.
S Feb 6 at 22:16 vote accept JBurt
Feb 6 at 22:15 vote accept JBurt
S Feb 6 at 22:16
Feb 6 at 20:55 comment added Jason Patterson I wouldn't be surprised if the wire hadn't been bent several times at that position and developed a crack/thin spot, or perhaps been damaged by pliers in forming a loop or straight portion for connecting to the appliance. In short, if there is a little bit of damage right there that happened to make the wire thinner, that's where its resistance would be greatest and heating correspondingly high.
Feb 6 at 19:04 comment added CSM Note that the thermostat is showing heat damage in its middle. I suspect that the heating element failed to short-circuit. The black wire's connection was the weakest link
Feb 6 at 17:09 comment added Glenn Willen Uh, just checking, but did you shut off the breaker after you took the picture? Don't leave it glowing like that!!
Feb 6 at 14:47 history became hot network question
Feb 6 at 12:35 history edited FreeMan CC BY-SA 4.0
added 15 characters in body
Feb 6 at 9:15 answer added Solar Mike timeline score: 17
Feb 6 at 8:46 answer added Nelson timeline score: 20
Feb 6 at 8:06 comment added PMF Can you measure the diameter of that black wire? It looks like it is thick enough for a 30A current, though.
Feb 6 at 6:50 history edited JBurt CC BY-SA 4.0
added 169 characters in body
Feb 6 at 6:42 history asked JBurt CC BY-SA 4.0